As we head into Super Bowl Weekend, it's time to forget about the hype, the alleged "deer antler spray" usage by Ray Lewis, the "brother versus brother" storyline, and the gay slur comment by Chris Colliver. Most of that crap is courtesy of bored journalistas who have nothing better to do with their days while waiting to head off to Bourbon Street after dark. It's time to talk about FOOTBALL. With that, I bring you ...
Uncle Skip's Sportsbook and Casino's Official Handicap*
First of all, let's look at the line. As of now (Friday morning) the line remains San Francisco -3 1/2, over/under 47 1/2. That line opened at 5 and 49, and almost immediately dropped to 3 1/2 and 47 1/2, where it sits this morning. This means, the "wise guys" probably saw a lot of early money on Baltimore and adjusted the line to try and entice play on both sides.
Frankly, I think that line is upside down. Here's why.
Consider San Fran's start in Atlanta. They fell behind by 17 points, almost immediately. Trust me, if they do this against Baltimore, this game will be a BLOWOUT. The Niners pass rush is questionable at best and Joe Flacco's most recent games have been stellar. If you give him time to throw, he'll pick almost any defense apart. He certainly did that in each of his road playoff wins.
Also, consider Colin Kaepernick. This is just his 17th game played in the NFL. That's games PLAYED, not even starts. I have to believe there's a mistake coming from young Mr. Kaepernick. He had one early against Green Bay, but the Packers' defense was so awful that he was able to make up for it quickly. I don't think he can get away with a similar "pick 6" type blunder here.
That, in large part, is due to the play of Baltimore's defense. Say what you will about Ray Lewis (and that's a whole 'nother story for another day,) since he returned to that defense, ( deer antler spray notwithstanding,) they have upped their play significantly, shutting down Indy, playing well enough to outscore Peyton Manning (forcing him into a couple of key picks,) and laying an absolute beatdown on Tom Brady and the Pats who had been putting up points like a pinball machine.
Above and beyond the actual defensive numbers, the impending Lewis retirement has the Ravens on a mission.
On offense, the Ravens' moves on their O-line have given Flacco loads of time against better pass rushers than the Niners have. In their win over Indy, Freeney and Mathis were non-factors. Against the Broncos, Elvis Dumerville was taken completely out. And you didn't hear much mention of Butch Wilfork in their win over the Pats either. I have to believe, based on what we've seen in the playoffs, that Flacco and Boldin will hook up at some point given enough time to throw.
And, if all else fails, there's "Hey, Diddle Diddle, Ray Rice up the middle."
To be sure, Colin Kaepernick is a nice story, and I think he'll do some damage in this game, perhaps with his legs. In their playoff run, Baltimore hasn't been exposed to a quarterback who has the dual threat capability he possesses. (Neither Manning nor Brady were ANY threat to run, and Andrew Luck spent a lot of his afternoon running for his life.)
And then, there's the Madden simulation. Every year, EA Sports runs a simulation of the Super Bowl game. During the period it has been run, it has been correct something like 80% of the time. I've profited from it on several occasisions, most notably in 2002 when I took the "upstart" Patriots over the heavily favored Rams. (In fact, the sim's two most recent "misses" were on the Pats two losses to the Giants.) The sim has Baltimore winning by 3.
You get all this AND you can get better than a field goal too? Sounds good to me. You might want to wait til Sunday to play the spread, holding on to see if you can "catch" an extra half a point to 4. Or, you could just park a little sumpin' sumpin' on the money line at +155. If you just want "shits and giggles," play a teaser on Baltimore and the over. If you can get Baltimore at +4, it can be teased to +10, with the over teased down to 41 1/2.
Whatever you decide, enjoy your Sunday!
* FOR RECREATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY
And, if all else fails, there's "Hey, Diddle Diddle, Ray Rice up the middle."
To be sure, Colin Kaepernick is a nice story, and I think he'll do some damage in this game, perhaps with his legs. In their playoff run, Baltimore hasn't been exposed to a quarterback who has the dual threat capability he possesses. (Neither Manning nor Brady were ANY threat to run, and Andrew Luck spent a lot of his afternoon running for his life.)
And then, there's the Madden simulation. Every year, EA Sports runs a simulation of the Super Bowl game. During the period it has been run, it has been correct something like 80% of the time. I've profited from it on several occasisions, most notably in 2002 when I took the "upstart" Patriots over the heavily favored Rams. (In fact, the sim's two most recent "misses" were on the Pats two losses to the Giants.) The sim has Baltimore winning by 3.
You get all this AND you can get better than a field goal too? Sounds good to me. You might want to wait til Sunday to play the spread, holding on to see if you can "catch" an extra half a point to 4. Or, you could just park a little sumpin' sumpin' on the money line at +155. If you just want "shits and giggles," play a teaser on Baltimore and the over. If you can get Baltimore at +4, it can be teased to +10, with the over teased down to 41 1/2.
Whatever you decide, enjoy your Sunday!
* FOR RECREATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY
No comments:
Post a Comment