Indianapolis 500 Preview: Part 2 - The Handicap

I apologize to anyone who might have expected this blog a little earler, but after the fantastic finish in today's Freedom 100 for the Firestone Indy Lights cars, I needed to decompress (and damn near get defibrillated!) Before I get into Sunday's 500, let me ask, no, BEG you to go to You Tube and find the video of the finish of the Lights race. I promise you will not be disappointed. In all my years of watching races at the Speedway, I have NEVER seen anything like this. On the last lap of the race, to see not two, not three, but FOUR wide racing down the straightaway to the checkers is enough to set anyone's heart racing. First and fourth separated by less than 3/4 of a car length.

It's truly a shame that there isn't more interest in the Lights series: They have turned out some pretty fine drivers lately. Those folks who went to Carb Day today certainly got their money's worth.

The Pit Stop competition came down to Ganassi v Penske (Franchitti v Castroneves) with Helio winning for the 6th time.

Now, let's get down to the BIG show.

If you read my piece from Tuesday, you know that the field is heavily front loaded with Chevy engines. I think today's time chart shows us that this dominance was due to the additional boost offered for Fast Friday and Time Trials. The Chevy powerplant clearly had an advantage with the bonus power, but today, when that power was no longer in play, everything turned out pretty even.

Quick lap came from a Honda, in fact, Simon Pagenaud. And just to confuse Hell out of everybody, there are several people at the top of the chart that have been, well, underwhelming all month speed-wise. After Pagenaud, you have two of the Andretti cars, E. J. Viso and Ryan Hunter-Reay. Next were Scott Dixon, Sebastien Bourdais, and Dario Franchitti. Rounding out the top 10 were James Jakes (?) Katherine Legge (?) Marco Andretti and Alex Tagliani.

So, apparently the rumors of the death of the Honda powerplant were greatly exagerrated. And that just makes the job of handicapping this race that much more fun.

Let's start first with the guys Vegas thinks are the favorites. At this moment, the co-favorites are Marco Andretti and Scott Dixon at 7-1. Do now forget that while Andretti Autosport has been doing a lot of "team" driving this month, the guys in the Target cars proved they could handle that task last year. While I think you have to get a little something on Dixon, I couldn't bet on Mario, Aldo, Michael, Jeff, John, OR Marco Andretti. This poor family just finds ways to LOSE this race. Until they break that trend, I'll pass.

Checking in next at 8-1 are Dario Franchitti and Helio Castroneves. Both are three time winners and while Franchitti was top 10 quick, he was also runner up in the Pit Stop Competition. Castroneves won the Pit Stop but was only 28th on the speed chart. I've picked at least one Penske car each of the last three years to no avail. And, I just can't help but feel that Chipster tricked them all again. Give me something on Franchitti.

At 9-1, we have Ed Carpenter and James Hinchcliffe. Hinch has won twice already this season, and Ed has won the most recent 500. Carpenter said something interesting tonight while being interviewed for "Trackside," something to the effect that he knew the minute he won the pole that the haters would be wanting to go through his ride with a fine tooth comb thinking he'd cheated. In a nice way, the boy showed me a little 'tude that I didn't think he had. If he was somewhere in the 10-1 to 15-1 range, I might have to ride with him. At  9-1, I'm not sure he's enough value for the bet. Even though his two wins have been on twisties, I'll take some of Hinch. Besides, he's got the easiest car in the field to see.

Ryan Hunter-Reay goes off at 10-1. He may be the defending champ, but my gut tells me he isn't ready for this stage yet. Pass.

In at 12-1 are the other two Penske rides, A. J. Allmendinger and Will Power. I don't like to bet on rookies in this race and I definitely don't like betting into a losing streak. Considering the dominance he's had the last couple of years on the early part of the season, Will Power's sudden lack of a win in over a year is almost shocking. Pass and pass.

Tony Kanaan goes at 15-1. Check that box. I know, it's a "heart bet," something I very seldom do, but how many times can this guy rocket into the lead in this race and have it go away. In previous years he's come from way in the back. Well, this year, he's NOT way in the back. If nobody does anything stupid (see Tuesday's part 1,) you KNOW he'll move up about 3 spots on the first lap. If he happens to win, they might have to rebuild the Speedway.

From here on, we get into "dark horses" and I've got two great chances for a really NICE payback.
First, there's Oriol Servia at 25-1. If he can pick up where he left off last year, he might run away and hide from the field because the last 20 laps last year he was one of if not the fastest guy on the track. He himself has said that those 20 laps were the best of his life. His team probably goes Tango Uniform if he doesn't win, so there's no lack of incentive here. I'll take one on the guy that has to win to keep employed.

Now, can someone please tell me why the points leader for this year is 30-1? He wins at Long Beach, places second at Sao Paolo, sits right there in row 6 with Dixon and Franchitti, but Takuma Sato is 30-1??? Look, I know, A. J. Foyt Racing doesn't have all the cred it once did, but they have come a LONG way this year and we all remember Sato's banzai move on Franchitti on the penultimate lap last year. This line I do not  understand, but I want some. And if he wins, I might just break out the rising sun flag, turn to the east and in a loud (although uninebriated) voice yell, "SAATTTOOOOO!!!

If you really want to get breathless, Alex Tagliani, the fastest qualified Honda is 50-1. I'm not quite that brave, but he has led and has won the pole here before.

So let's review my action:
1. Scott Dixon (7-1)
2. Dario Franchitti (8-1)
3. James Hinchcliffe (9-1)
4. Tony Kanaan (15-1)* "Heart Bet," NOT for the squeamish!
5. Oriol Servia (25-1)
6. Takuma Sato (30-1)

The strategy works like this: Worst case scenario, (at $10 a way) I lose $60. If I had gone to the race, I'd have spent twice that for the ticket. If any of the short odds guys wins, (1-3) I win $20, $30, or $40 respectively. But if one of the longer odds guys brings home the cake, well there'll be a party goin' on right here in Myrtle Beach.

Enjoy your Memorial Day Weekend. Please remember those whose sacrifices keep us free and fly those colors proudly! Good Luck!