Indianapolis 500 Preview, Part I

In normal years, I only post one pre-race blog. For those of you looking for my handicap of the 500, that post will be along either Friday night or Saturday morning, after I've had time to review the goings-on at Carb Day, as well as the latest odds from Vegas.

This piece will cover some of my interesting observations and thoughts about this year's field. Since I retired this year, I've had a lot more time to observe practice and qualifying than in previous years.

Once again, as last year, the 500 field is front-loaded with Chevrolet (Ilmor) engines. This year most of the "usual suspects" with Honda power are residing in rows 6-11, Alex Tagliani notwithstanding. In the case of last year, that advantage disappeared on Carb Day with the red Target rockets of Scott Dixon and Dario Franchitti taking down the top times in the final practice session.

The main difference between this year and last is that the Honda drivers last year didn't install their Mark 2 engines until before Carb Day, while this year, many "race" engines were installed right after qualifying. And, there is no "fix" which was the secret to the Mark 2 engine. Whether that will change what happens this year remains to be seen.

Another big difference this year over last is the dearth of experience in the first two rows of the starting field. Starting in the middle of row 1, you have Carlos Munoz, a rookie. He's been fast all month as have most of the Andretti Autosport entries, but HE'S STILL A ROOKIE. He's never faced the havoc of a three-wide flying start down a 50 foot wide stretch of asphalt. Does the name Kevin Cogan ring a bell?

And what do we have right behind him? Well, that would be A. J. Allmendinger. OK, he's been here before. In NASCAR. To be sure, he does have some open wheel experience back in the CART/CCWS days, but, again, not running three wide down  Indy's main straightaway at over 200 mph.

Then we move to the inside of row 2. E.J. Viso. Now, I know, Viso has been much better lately at not running into things like walls, other cars, and assorted other wildlife, but, lest we forget, this guy's nickname used to be "E. J. Crasho." Call me skeptical,  in spite of all the "team driving" that Andretti pilots have been doing this year.

Taking all that into account, it would not surprise me one bit if pole sitter Ed Carpenter (who, having won the last two season closing oval races, no longer deserves the title, "Special Ed,") and a suddenly more mature Marco Andretti decide that it might be best to check out of this Holiday Inn early, like halfway through turn 4 on the pace lap. The pace car driver (as yet unnamed) had better have his eyes on his mirrors or he (or she) might get passed by those two.

Assuming we manage to get through the first couple of laps without mayhem, our next decision is determining what course the race will take. If, as was the case last year, we have long stretches of green flag racing, I believe that will favor the Honda powered entries. They seemed to get better mileage over the longer runs, and every lap you can stretch your fuel early on is that much more you can short-pit toward the end of the race.

In re-watching last year's race last night, I noted the near panic in Marco Andretti's voice when he realized that the Target cars (Honda) were getting significantly better mileage than the Chevy powerplant.

That advantage, if it is still as it was last year, gets neutralized by a load of yellow flag laps. If that happens, as one poster put it, the Honda camp had better hope that most of the Chevy products blow up.

The weather, frequently a factor at Indianapolis, is forecast for a high of 69, (avoiding the severe heat from the last two years,) with possible isolated thunderstorms. If this holds true, it should help the engines make power fairly efficiently. Living in a tourist market as I do, however, I also know that sometimes the Chamber of Commerce can fudge a bit on the forecast, so we'll put a final check on that one in Saturday's Part Two. Until then....